How Will High-Temperature Power Brownouts Affect Our Economy?
Aug 23, 2022Several days of extreme heat have put a strain on power systems in many places. The Central Meteorological Observatory has issued a high temperature warning for more than 20 days in a row, starting from the 21st of last month, high temperatures above 40°C affected 12 provinces and cities. Several provinces along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, such as Sichuan, Hubei, Chongqing and Jiangsu, have recently issued power rationing notices.
The current round of power rationing is mainly due to the triggering of a red alert for high temperatures in the summer, while last year it was mainly due to the high price of coal due to the tight supply of coal, which led to the inversion of electricity prices of thermal power generators and coal prices, which caused power generators to cut power. Moreover, this year's power cut is more humane, not as "barbaric" as last year, both enterprises and residents unified power supply, seriously affecting the production of enterprises and residents' lives. This year, we will provide orderly power supply, hoping that some high-energy enterprises will take the initiative to make way for enterprises with low energy consumption and good efficiency and for People's Daily use. Moreover, this year's high temperature weather, also will certainly make the residential electricity consumption increase substantially.
Why this year such as sichuan province water conservancy and there is a power in the summer, the reason is that in August the emergence of a new problem is that the rainfall in more southern provinces lower than last year, from drought flood control mode to the current model transformation, and in the future it will be a norm, which seriously affected the southern provinces of hydropower enterprises. It is obvious that in fact, the contradiction between supply and demand of electricity is still relatively prominent, not fundamentally alleviated, residential electricity surge met with "water and electricity supply sharply reduced", this is afraid that after this year, "coal power price inverted" after the new contradiction point.
As long as there is no heavy rain in the south, the problem of power shortage will be further spread. Moreover, after the start of autumn, the south has passed the rainy season, and the probability of heavy rain is very low, so the power supply in the third and fourth quarters of this year will still be tight in the south. If this situation continues, will have a significant impact on the second half of the economy, many corporate entities is limited by electricity, may adjust the scale of production, the production and business operation is likely to decline, by profit will reduce, to the enterprise staff's income and employment will also reduce, the stable social economy, especially this year's economic growth target to realize the harm.
In particular, there is a power gap in Sichuan, a big power province, and Sichuan-Chongqing region is one of the six major automobile industry clusters in China. The production suspension of local Toyota, Changan and Ningde Times will cause a large negative impact on the industrial chain of new energy vehicles: Production will be reduced, sales will fall, enterprise profits will also be reduced, the whole new energy vehicles will enter a trough period, for the rapid development of new energy vehicles will bring adverse impact. Not only that, the recent announcements of power rationing in many places and a rise in the number of listed companies announcing production restrictions will have an impact on automobile manufacturers, steel producers, home appliance manufacturers, textile manufacturers and other power-hungry enterprises. As the electricity price increase will increase the production cost of industrial enterprises, automobiles, home appliances, durable high-end goods will face the risk of price increase.
Look from the power shortage, the future should be the norm, this will force our country intensify the pace of reform and the adjustment of energy structure, the development of energy resources, further optimize the structure of energy supply, especially to the field of energy such as wind, solar, photovoltaic energy, the increasing energy supply, satisfy the business enterprise and household electricity at the same time, and constantly improve the proportion of clean energy in China, The gradual ecologicalization of energy and sustainable energy will lay a solid foundation for the requirements of carbon peak carbon neutralization and achieving the commitment. In the future, photovoltaic, wind, solar and other industries will benefit more and bring more investment opportunities to investors.